Methodology
Watcher Consensus — Stress Index
The Stress Index aggregates calibrated leading indicators and assessments into sector-weighted indices (Grid, Transformer Lead-Time, Cable Lead-Time, REE Magnet, Copper Grid, and others). Energy & Utilities accounts use different weights than the default industrial pack.
Step 1
Index construction
Each index (e.g. transformer_stress, cable_lead_time) scores matched live signals with lag calibration: expected score impact × severity × confidence. Unmatched windows stay at 0 — never invented.
Step 2
Sector weights
Default and Energy weights live in lib/watcher/sectors/energy.ts. Energy mode boosts grid, transformer, cable, copper and REE; demotes AI/semiconductor. The feed breakdown table shows weight × contribution in real time.
Step 3
Evidence & methodology URL
Every assessment and index cites sources, asOf timestamps and a methodology URL (watcher-consensus-v1 / watcher-reasoning-v1). ERP full export carries the same fields for audit.
Step 4
Known limits
OSINT and public port models are not AIS or closed-forum scrapes. Low sample calibration stays low-confidence. The index is decision support for procurement — not a market price feed or legal opinion.
What we do not claim
We do not claim Bloomberg-grade market data coverage or Palantir-grade ontology completeness. We claim a defensible, portfolio-scoped judgment with visible uncertainty — and we document how it is computed.
Decision support only. Weights and calibrations evolve with new cases.
